Viewing archive of onsdag, 24 september 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Sep 24 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 267 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 24 Sep 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 23-2100Z till 24-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 464 (N04E22)
continues to be the most active region. It has increased in
activity over the last 24 hours, producing a series of minor C-class
flares, and elevating the solar X-ray background to approximately
the B5 level. A 20-degree disappearing solar filament lifted off at
0532 UTC centered near S19W23. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to remain
low. There's a slight chance for M-class activity from Region 464.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 23-2100Z till 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels. A
geoeffective coronal hole has maintained a high-speed solar wind
stream, and sustained elevated geomagnetic field activity for the
last couple of days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next day.
Beginning approximately in the next 36 hours, the solar wind speeds
should begin to relax in response to the passing of the coronal
hole. But, within the next two days, the disappearing solar
filament ejecta should impact the geomagnetic field causing a rapid
increase in activity to minor storm levels with isolated periods of
major storming possible.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 25 Sep till 27 Sep
| M-klass | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 24 Sep 134 Prognoserat 25 Sep-27 Sep 135/130/130 90 Day Mean 24 Sep 120
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 23 Sep 010/017 Förväntat Afr/Ap 24 Sep 030/020 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 015/020-015/015-020/030
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 25 Sep till 27 Sep
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 35% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 25% | 40% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 20% |
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