Viewing archive of fredag, 12 september 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Sep 12 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 255 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 Sep 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest
flare was a B8 from Region 456 (S07W45) at 12/2000Z. A long
duration B7 X-ray enhancement occurred at 11/2237 and was correlated
with the two disappearing solar filaments. The first DSF was five
degrees long and lifted off around 11/2100Z near S25E05. The second
DSF followed the first and was along the same inversion line. This
DSF was about ten-degrees long and lifted off near S18E15. LASCO C2
imagery indicates a partial halo CME associated with the DSF's.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
speed remains elevated near 600 km/s and Bz has been predominantly
northward.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Activity on day one and
day two is expected to be quiet to unsettled. CME effects are
possible on day three with activity expected to be at unsettled to
active levels.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 Sep till 15 Sep
| M-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 12 Sep 094 Prognoserat 13 Sep-15 Sep 095/100/105 90 Day Mean 12 Sep 121
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 11 Sep 010/015 Förväntat Afr/Ap 12 Sep 010/012 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 010/010-010/010-015/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 Sep till 15 Sep
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 15% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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