Viewing archive of söndag, 7 september 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Sep 07 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 250 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 07 Sep 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z Solar activity was low. A long-duration C5 flare
occurred at 07/1407Z in Region 450 (S17W63). This flare was
characterized in H-alpha imagery by several prolonged bright kernels
in ribbon form along a thin NW-SE filament. This event appeared to
trigger a large 19 degree filament eruption near S38W18. Minor
centimetric radio bursts also accompanied this event, and LASCO
imagery revealed a large CME in progress. The X-ray flux was still
considerably enhanced by the end of the period. Region 450 is a
small, simple beta group in decay. The remaining active regions
were either stable or in decay.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. The current X-ray flux levels are elevated following
today's eruption, but are expected to return to the pre-flare
background level early in the period. Very isolated low C-class
flares are possible.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed has
declined to below 450 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels through day one. A
recurring high speed coronal hole stream will likely produce active
to minor storm periods on days two and three. Activity on day three
may be further enhanced by transient material from today's CME off
the SW limb.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 08 Sep till 10 Sep
| M-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 07 Sep 108 Prognoserat 08 Sep-10 Sep 100/095/095 90 Day Mean 07 Sep 125
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 06 Sep 007/012 Förväntat Afr/Ap 07 Sep 008/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep 012/012-015/015-020/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 08 Sep till 10 Sep
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 35% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 40% | 50% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 15% |
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