Viewing archive of tisdag, 12 augusti 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Aug 12 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 224 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 Aug 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels today. Regions
424 (S18W67) and 431 (S13E30) produced several low level B and
C-class flares during the period. Region 424 has shown a continued
decay in penumbral coverage yet remains a beta-gamma magnetic class
group. Region 431 underwent little change today and also retains a
beta-gamma magnetic structure. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream that became effective early
in the period is believed to be responsible for the elevated
conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels through day one of
the forecast period due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole
stream. A decrease to predominantly unsettled with isolated active
conditions are possible by day two as the coronal hole wanes.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 Aug till 15 Aug
| M-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 12 Aug 123 Prognoserat 13 Aug-15 Aug 120/120/125 90 Day Mean 12 Aug 126
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 11 Aug 009/011 Förväntat Afr/Ap 12 Aug 020/025 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 020/035-012/020-010/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 Aug till 15 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 40% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 01% |
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