Viewing archive of söndag, 10 augusti 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Aug 10 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 222 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 10 Aug 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 425 (S09W43) produced a
C3/Sf flare at 10/1020Z followed by a more gradual C2 flare that
peaked at 10/1128Z. Region 431 (S13E56) produced an impulsive C1/Sf
flare at 10/0127Z. This beta gamma region is showing some minor
complexity in a spot group with over 250 millionths of white light
coverage. Region 424 (S18W41), the largest region on the visible
disk, exhibited only minor plage fluctuations this period. Remaining
active regions were quiet.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. C-class flares are possible from Regions 424, 425,
and 431.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A declining high speed
stream with very low density and weak northward IMF Bz continues to
buffet the Earth's magnetic field. Solar wind speed declined from
near 700 km/s to below 600 km/s by the end of the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels again today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to active on day one. Another coronal
hole high speed stream is expected to impact the geomagnetic field
on days two and three. Expect unsettled to minor storm levels both
days with isolated major storm periods on day three.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 11 Aug till 13 Aug
| M-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 10 Aug 131 Prognoserat 11 Aug-13 Aug 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 10 Aug 125
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 09 Aug 010/015 Förväntat Afr/Ap 10 Aug 010/014 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 012/012-020/020-020/035
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 11 Aug till 13 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 40% | 45% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 45% | 50% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 30% | 35% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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