Viewing archive of måndag, 4 augusti 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Aug 04 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 216 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 04 Aug 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 424
(S18E39), with over 700 millionths of white light area, showed some
growth this period, but was otherwise quite stable. Despite this
region's moderate size, it maintains a relatively simple magnetic
structure. New growth was observed in Region 425 (S09E36), but
activity was limited to occasional plage fluctuations and minor
surging. New Region 428 (N16W10) was numbered today. A full halo
CME, first seen on LASCO imagery at 03/0030Z, was likely a backside
event.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low.
C-class flares are possible from Regions 424 or 425. Region 424 has
slight potential to produce an isolated M-class flare
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed continues
to show a steady decline as the large southern coronal hole rotates
out of a geoeffective position. Occasional periods of southward Bz
account for the active levels. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels through day
one with isolated active periods likely again. A large equatorial
coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position by day two and
produce unsettled to minor storm conditions through the remainder of
the period. Isolated major storm periods at higher latitudes are
expected on day three.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 05 Aug till 07 Aug
| M-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 04 Aug 123 Prognoserat 05 Aug-07 Aug 125/130/135 90 Day Mean 04 Aug 123
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 03 Aug 010/015 Förväntat Afr/Ap 04 Aug 012/012 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 008/015-015/025-025/035
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 05 Aug till 07 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 35% | 45% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 20% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 35% | 45% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 20% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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