Viewing archive of fredag, 1 augusti 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Aug 01 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 213 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 01 Aug 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 31-2100Z till 01-2100Z Solar activity has been low. A new Region 424 (S18E77)
has been single-handedly responsible for a long series of C-class
x-ray flares since it first appeared as a prominence on the
East-limb on July 31st at approximately 2200 UTC.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There's a slight chance for an M-class flare from Region 424
(S18E77), but overall the disk will be relatively inactive.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 31-2100Z till 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels. A
large polar-connected coronal hole which has maintained a high-speed
solar wind stream, combined with a series of periods where the
interplanetary magnetic field has been oriented Southward,
maintaining elevated activity. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next 24
hours. The coronal hole which has generated the current activity
will pass beyond geoeffective range by the end of tomorrow, and the
geomagnetic field should settle to quiet to unsettled levels for
days two and three.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 02 Aug till 04 Aug
| M-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 01 Aug 107 Prognoserat 02 Aug-04 Aug 110/115/115 90 Day Mean 01 Aug 123
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 31 Jul 022/032 Förväntat Afr/Ap 01 Aug 025/034 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 020/025-012/015-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 02 Aug till 04 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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