Viewing archive of onsdag, 30 juli 2003

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Jul 30 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 211 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 30 Jul 2003

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 422 (N14W67) produced the largest flare of the period, an M2.5/1b flare that occurred at 30/0410Z. A Tenflare and several discrete radio bursts were associated with the event. There were no observed Type II radio sweeps and LASCO imagery doesn't depict a resulting CME. There appears to have been some decay in complexity to this region overnight and the gamma magnetic structure is no longer evident, although the majority of the flare activity came from this region during the period. Region 421 (S08E41) produced a single event today, a B9.1 x-ray flare that occurred at 30/1014Z. There was some penumbral loss in spot group and little flare production today, but the weak gamma magnetic structure remains intact. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 421 and 422 both have a chance of producing further isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. A recurrent high speed coronal hole stream remains geoeffective. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly active levels throughout the forecast period. Nighttime sectors may experience isolated minor storm conditions through the first two days of the interval. The high speed stream should be in the waning phase by the end of day three.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 31 Jul till 02 Aug
M-klass35%35%35%
X-klass10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       30 Jul 099
  Prognoserat   31 Jul-02 Aug  100/100/095
  90 Day Mean        30 Jul 125
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 29 Jul  024/036
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 30 Jul  020/030
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug  020/025-015/020-015/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 31 Jul till 02 Aug
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt35%25%25%
Små stormförhållanden20%10%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%05%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt40%35%35%
Små stormförhållanden25%20%20%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%10%10%

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