Viewing archive of lördag, 19 juli 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Jul 19 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 200 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 19 Jul 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 410 (S12W13) and 412
(N16W20) produced several low C-class flares over the past 24 hours.
Region 410 continues to develop at a considerable pace in both size
and magnetic complexity. Region 412 is developing at a slower rate,
but also has significant complexity in a compact spot group. New
Region 415 (N13E30) was numbered today and produced a small C-class
flare at 19/1734Z. Region 409 (N15W08) continues to simplify and
decay. Remaining regions were stable.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a good chance for M-class activity from
Regions 410 and 412.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active with isolated
minor storm periods during local nighttime hours. Solar wind speed
began a gradual rise from near 500 km/s midway through the period to
approximately 650 km/s by the end of the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly unsettled to active periods through
day one with isolated minor storm periods possible. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on days two and three with isolated
active periods likely.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 20 Jul till 22 Jul
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 19 Jul 146 Prognoserat 20 Jul-22 Jul 150/155/155 90 Day Mean 19 Jul 127
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 18 Jul 011/014 Förväntat Afr/Ap 19 Jul 020/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 015/015-012/010-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 20 Jul till 22 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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