Viewing archive of lördag, 31 maj 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 May 31 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 151 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 31 May 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 30-2100Z till 31-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 365 (S07W72) produced
an M9/2b flare at 31/0224 UTC. The flare was accompanied by a 1300
sfu radio burst at 2695 MHz, a Type II radio sweep, and a CME
observed by the SOHO spacecraft to be directed mostly towards the
southwest. This region also generated a few C-class subflares during
the past day. Further decay, mostly in penumbral area, is evident
since yesterday.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 365 may produce yet another major flare
before it passes the west solar limb.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 30-2100Z till 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. The
most disturbed period occurred from 31/0300-0600 UTC and has since
been quiet to unsettled at most locations. A greater than 10 MeV
proton event started at 31/0440 UTC, reached a 27 pfu peak at
31/0645 UTC, and ended at 31/1440 UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance of isolated
storm conditions at local nighttime. The field may become
increasingly disturbed by 03 June due to a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 01 Jun till 03 Jun
| M-klass | 80% | 50% | 10% |
| X-klass | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Proton | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 31 May 113 Prognoserat 01 Jun-03 Jun 110/100/090 90 Day Mean 31 May 125
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 30 May 036/049 Förväntat Afr/Ap 31 May 025/040 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun 015/025-015/015-020/030
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 01 Jun till 03 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 15% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 50% | 30% | 60% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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