Viewing archive of fredag, 9 maj 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 May 09 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 129 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 09 May 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. There was one C-class event
during the past 24 hours, a C3 at 0048 UTC from behind the west limb
at about S15 (Region 349). New Region 356 (N15E63) was assigned
today and is a small D-type sunspot group.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels from the
beginning of the period through about 09/1500 UTC. Since then
conditions have been predominantly unsettled. Solar wind
observations show persistence of high speed solar wind (750-900
km/s) and weak to moderate oscillations in Bz for most of the day.
However, there did appear to be a slight decline in speed beginning
after 1830 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes continue to
be at high levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next two days due to
persistence. An increase to mostly active is expected on the third
day as yet another coronal hole will be rotating into favorable
position at that time.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 10 May till 12 May
| M-klass | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 09 May 097 Prognoserat 10 May-12 May 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 09 May 127
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 08 May 022/030 Förväntat Afr/Ap 09 May 020/036 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 015/020-015/020-020/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 10 May till 12 May
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 20% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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