Viewing archive of torsdag, 17 april 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Apr 17 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 107 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 17 Apr 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. There was a single
minor B-class event during the past 24 hours. A new Region 336
(N12E75) was numbered today. All spotted regions on the disk
continue to be small, quiet, and stable. There has been a slow
increase in background levels due to the arrival of the new region.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. The background levels are likely to continue to increase
slightly with the addition of regions which are now visible in GOES
Solar x-ray imagery behind East limb at N20 and S25.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active during the past
24 hours with a minor storm period from 0300-0900 UTC in the mid
latitudes, and a minor storm period at high latitudes from both
0300-1200 UTC and 1500-1800 UTC. The coronal-hole induced high speed
solar wind flow continues. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active but decreasing to unsettled within the
next 24 hours as the current disturbance transitions out of
geoeffective range. Continued unsettled levels are expected for days
two and three.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 18 Apr till 20 Apr
| M-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 17 Apr 101 Prognoserat 18 Apr-20 Apr 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 17 Apr 127
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 16 Apr 013/031 Förväntat Afr/Ap 17 Apr 029/033 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr 015/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 18 Apr till 20 Apr
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 10% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/05/03 | X1.6 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/05/04 | M1.5 |
| Senaste geomagnetiska stormen | 2024/05/02 | Kp7- (G3) |
| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
| Månadsvis faktiskt antal solfläckar | |
|---|---|
| april 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| Last 30 days | 151.9 +56.5 |