Viewing archive of måndag, 14 april 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Apr 14 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 104 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 14 Apr 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's only C-class event was a C1 at 0930 UTC from Region 335
(S22E57). Region 334 (S08E29) exhibited the brightest plage
throughout the day but was not able to muster a flare-level event.
Region 330 (N07W57) continues to be the largest group on the disk
but was stable and quiet.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels, with a
period of minor storm conditions at high latitudes from 1200-1500
UTC. The enhanced activity was associated with an extended interval
of moderately strong (-5 to -10 nT) southward orientation of the
interplanetary magnetic field Bz component between 1100-1500 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were high levels early in the
day but dropped below 1000 PFU after 0525 UTC. Solar wind speed and
temperature showed a gradual increasing trend during the last four
hours of the day, which may indicate the beginning of a high speed
solar wind stream associated with a coronal hole.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled with occasional active periods
over the next three days. There is a chance for some isolated storm
periods at high latitudes.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 15 Apr till 17 Apr
| M-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 14 Apr 102 Prognoserat 15 Apr-17 Apr 100/095/095 90 Day Mean 14 Apr 128
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 13 Apr 008/010 Förväntat Afr/Ap 14 Apr 015/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 012/015-012/015-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 15 Apr till 17 Apr
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 40% | 45% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 15% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/05/03 | X1.6 |
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