Viewing archive of söndag, 23 mars 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Mar 23 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 082 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 23 Mar 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares
during the past 24 hours. The first was a C1 from Region 318
(S15E62) at 1214 UTC. This flare was associated with an erupting
filament and narrow CME observed on the east limb. The second was a
C1 from a new region behind east limb that was visible in Solar
X-ray images at latitude N04. New Region 319 (N15E53) was assigned
today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. There was a
period of storm level activity from 0900-1200 UTC, with minor storm
levels at mid-latitudes and major storm levels at high latitudes.
The activity was caused by high speed solar wind accompanied by
frequent negative and positive fluctuations of Z-component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (typically oscillating between +6 to -
6 nT). The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next two days, with a chance
for some isolated active periods. Activity is expected to increase
to mostly active on the third day in response to a favorably
positioned coronal hole.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 24 Mar till 26 Mar
| M-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 23 Mar 093 Prognoserat 24 Mar-26 Mar 095/100/105 90 Day Mean 23 Mar 133
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 22 Mar 011/016 Förväntat Afr/Ap 23 Mar 020/025 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 010/015-015/015-020/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 24 Mar till 26 Mar
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 20% |
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