Viewing archive of torsdag, 13 mars 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Mar 13 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 072 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 13 Mar 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 311 (S12W08)
produced a C1.3/Sf flare at 13/0213 UTC with multiple eruptive
centers. Region 311 has grown slightly over the past twenty-four
hours, most notable was an increase in plage area with numerous
patches forming east of the main spots. New Region 313 (N32E00),
exhibited numerous plage fluctuations. The largest and most complex
spot group on the disk was Region 306 (N07W05). This region has
developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 306 and 311 have the potential for C-class
events.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Two separate
periods of isolated active conditions were observed due to Bz
fluctuations near -10 nT. Solar wind velocity remained relatively
steady between 450 - 500 km/s.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated active
conditions. High speed stream effects are expected early in the
period as an equatorial coronal hole rotates into a geo-effective
position.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 14 Mar till 16 Mar
| M-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 13 Mar 134 Prognoserat 14 Mar-16 Mar 130/125/120 90 Day Mean 13 Mar 141
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 12 Mar 009/009 Förväntat Afr/Ap 13 Mar 017/017 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 015/015-015/015-012/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 14 Mar till 16 Mar
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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