Viewing archive of tisdag, 4 mars 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Mar 04 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 063 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 04 Mar 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. A long duration C2 flare
occurred at 03/2105Z from a spotless plage field near S27E72. A
large coronal mass ejection off the SE limb was observed on
coronagraph imagery following this flare. There have been no white
light developments near the source region in the past 24 hours and
no other significant activity was noted. Region 296 (N11E21) remains
the largest sunspot group on the visible disk and now measures
approximately 650 millionths in a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
Despite the size and complexity of this region, it has been rather
quiet with just occasional plage fluctuations and minor surges
observed. New Regions 301 (N21E36) and 302 (N19E62) were numbered
today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Isolated C-class flares are possible primarily from
Region 296, with a slight chance of a low M-class flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with isolated minor
storm periods at high latitudes. This disturbance is due to a high
speed coronal hole stream that began late in the day yesterday.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at unsettled to active levels early, but will
return to quiet to unsettled levels late on day one as the high
speed stream subsides. Isolated active periods at mostly higher
latitudes are possible through the next three days.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 05 Mar till 07 Mar
| M-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 04 Mar 146 Prognoserat 05 Mar-07 Mar 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 04 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 03 Mar 011/015 Förväntat Afr/Ap 04 Mar 020/025 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 015/015-012/012-010/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 05 Mar till 07 Mar
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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