Viewing archive of tisdag, 18 februari 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Feb 18 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 049 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 18 Feb 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. New Region 289
(N11W52) produced a B9.8 flare at 18/0841 UTC. The most significant
event on the visible disk was a 47 degree disappearing solar
filament that lifted off at 18/0125 UTC and was centered at N34W58.
Associated with the DSF was a CME off the NW limb which does not
appear to have an Earth directed component. Region 288 (N12E32) has
remained relatively stable. Two new regions were numbered today:
Region 289 (N11W52) and Region 290 (N17E46).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 288 and 289 have C-class potential.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. A
transient passage was observed at the NASA/ACE spacecraft late on 17
February. The transient resulted in an increase in solar wind speed
to over 700 km/s and combined with fluctuating southward Bz was the
source of minor storm conditions measured at the Boulder
magnetometer. At about 18/0400 UTC, the solar wind became very
structured and was marked by a northward turning Bz and a gradual
decline in solar wind speed to current levels near 600 km/s.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to isolated active levels. Coronal hole
effects are expected to continue after the transient has passed.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 19 Feb till 21 Feb
| M-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 18 Feb 110 Prognoserat 19 Feb-21 Feb 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 18 Feb 146
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 17 Feb 008/011 Förväntat Afr/Ap 18 Feb 018/020 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 015/020-015/015-012/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 19 Feb till 21 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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