Viewing archive of torsdag, 13 februari 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Feb 13 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 044 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 13 Feb 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 282 (N10W45)
produced two low level C-class flares today, the largest was a C2.3
flare (location correlated using SXI imagery) that occurred at
12/2112Z. There was very little change seen in white-light coverage
or magnetic complexity during the interval, region remains a simple
beta group. Region 280 (S06W68) produced a B8.4/Sf flare at
13/0129Z and remains a very simple beta magnetic complex. A filament
eruption in the southeastern quadrant of the disk (began at
approximately 12/1330Z), seen in SOHO/EIT and SXI imagery, produced
a narrow CME (LASCO imagery) that doesn't appear as though it will
become geoeffective. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate
levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Day two may experience
isolated active to minor storm conditions as the leading edge of the
recurrent favorably positioned coronal hole becomes geoeffective.
Day three should be at predominantly unsettled to active levels with
minor storm conditions possible.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 14 Feb till 16 Feb
| M-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 13 Feb 131 Prognoserat 14 Feb-16 Feb 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 149
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 12 Feb 008/012 Förväntat Afr/Ap 13 Feb 006/008 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 008/012-010/015-012/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 14 Feb till 16 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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