Viewing archive of måndag, 3 februari 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Feb 03 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 034 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 03 Feb 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
276 (S14E53) produced today's only C-class flare, a C1 at 0456 UTC.
Region 276 is currently the largest region on the disk with an area
of 290 millionths, and shows frequent brightenings. Region 274
(S05W09) showed occasional fluctuations along an east-west
inversion line, but was unable to produce a flare event.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a slight chance for an isolated M-class
event from Region 276 sometime during the next three days.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels during the
past 24 hours. Solar wind observations show a continuation of
yesterday's enhanced flow, but with a slow return of speed and total
magnetic field intensity to nominal values. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled tomorrow, with a chance for some
isolated active periods. An increase to unsettled to active is
anticipated for the second and third days due to the favorable
position of a solar coronal hole.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 04 Feb till 06 Feb
| M-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 03 Feb 133 Prognoserat 04 Feb-06 Feb 135/140/145 90 Day Mean 03 Feb 155
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 02 Feb 029/045 Förväntat Afr/Ap 03 Feb 015/020 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 010/015-012/020-012/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 04 Feb till 06 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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