Viewing archive of lördag, 21 december 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Dec 21 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 355 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 21 Dec 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 226 (S28W54)
produced most of today's observed activity, a C4.6/1f occurring at
21/0453 UTC was the largest flare during the period. The
beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure remains intact although much
decay was noted in spot groups areal coverage today. Region 229
(N19W29) continues to show steady decay and was fairly quiescent
today. Region 230 (S08E06) underwent little change but remains a
beta-gamma magnetic complex. Region 232 (N13W08) was newly assigned
today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 226 and 230 are capable of
producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly at quiet to active levels as
the geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream wanes. Middle and
high latitudes experienced storming conditions between 21/0300 and
0600 UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for day one of the
forecast period. The CME from the M2.7 flare late on 19 December is
expected to arrive early to mid-day on 22 December. Predominantly
quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 22 Dec till 24 Dec
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 21 Dec 184 Prognoserat 22 Dec-24 Dec 185/180/180 90 Day Mean 21 Dec 167
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 20 Dec 012/016 Förväntat Afr/Ap 21 Dec 015/018 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec 025/025-012/015-006/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 22 Dec till 24 Dec
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 10% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 01% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
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