Viewing archive of torsdag, 19 december 2002

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Dec 19 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 353 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 19 Dec 2002

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 226 (S28W28) produced multiple low level C-class flares. The largest optically correlated event was a C2.7/Sf flare that occurred at 19/0035 UTC. Magnetic analysis of this region depicts a complex delta structure continuing in the intermediate cluster of penumbral spots. Region 229 (N19W03) was quiescent through the period. White-light analysis shows decay in areal coverage as a weak gamma magnetic structure remains evident in the central portion of this region's spot complex. Region 230 (S08E32) has continued to grow and now has a weak gamma magnetic structure seen in the trailing portion of the region. This region was also responsible for minor C-class flare activity early in the period. New Region 231 (S25E13) was assigned today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Regions 226, 229, and 230 all are capable of producing M-class flares. There is a slight chance of a major flare occurring in Region 226.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. A favorably positioned recurrent coronal hole and the resulting high speed stream are responsible for the elevated conditions.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels through day one of the forecast period, becoming predominantly unsettled to active levels on day two and returning to quiet to unsettled conditions by day three.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 20 Dec till 22 Dec
M-klass55%55%55%
X-klass10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       19 Dec 193
  Prognoserat   20 Dec-22 Dec  195/195/185
  90 Day Mean        19 Dec 166
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 18 Dec  002/006
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 19 Dec  020/025
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec  015/020-010/012-008/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 20 Dec till 22 Dec
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%20%15%
Små stormförhållanden15%05%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt35%25%20%
Små stormförhållanden25%10%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%05%01%

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