Viewing archive of fredag, 29 november 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Nov 29 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 333 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 29 Nov 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Only
two C-class flares were observed, both from Region 207 (S19E44). The
largest was a C3 at 28/2244 UTC. Region 207 is the largest region on
the disk, but has a relatively simple magnetic configuration. New
Region 208 (N10E74) rotated into view today as a simple D-type
group. A CME was observed to erupt off the south pole at 0054 UTC,
but the lack of corresponding disk signatures suggests that this was
a back-sided event.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low during the next three days. There is a chance, however,
for an isolated M-class event, with Region 207 the most likely
source region.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with a few
active periods. Solar wind velocity remains enhanced and the
interplanetary magnetic field continues to have significant
intervals of weakly southward orientation. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days, with a
chance for some isolated storm intervals. The increase is predicted
because of expected effects from a high speed solar wind stream
associated with a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 30 Nov till 02 Dec
| M-klass | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 29 Nov 141 Prognoserat 30 Nov-02 Dec 140/145/155 90 Day Mean 29 Nov 171
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 28 Nov 010/015 Förväntat Afr/Ap 29 Nov 010/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 015/015-015/015-015/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 30 Nov till 02 Dec
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 15% |
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