Viewing archive of måndag, 28 oktober 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Oct 28 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 301 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 28 Oct 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate due to an M1/1n flare
at 1205 UTC from Region 162 (N25W59). Region 162 continues to show
flux emergence and consolidation in the western portion of the
trailer spots where the group has a delta configuration. Additional
frequent C-class subflares were produced by this region throughout
the day. New Region 173 (S17W69) emerged on the disk today and new
Region 172 (S17E44) was assigned. An erupting prominence was
observed near the northeast limb beginning around 2200 UTC and was
associated with a narrow CME in LASCO as well as a type II sweep
with shock velocity of 1015 km/s. The event was promptly followed by
a back-sided full halo CME which was first observed in LASCO at 2326
UTC.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate because of Region 162. There continues to be a slight
chance for major flare activity from this region as well. The
current observations of strong activity behind the east limb suggest
that there is likely to be a gradual increase in background levels
and activity levels over the next three days.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind signatures
continue to indicate the presence of a high speed solar wind stream
associated with a coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron
fluxes reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days as the
currently enhanced conditions are expected to subside.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 29 Oct till 31 Oct
| M-klass | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 28 Oct 158 Prognoserat 29 Oct-31 Oct 155/155/160 90 Day Mean 28 Oct 176
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 27 Oct 013/022 Förväntat Afr/Ap 28 Oct 014/016 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 012/012-012/012-010/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 29 Oct till 31 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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