Viewing archive of söndag, 20 oktober 2002

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Oct 20 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 293 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 20 Oct 2002

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 160 (S21W26) produced two M-class events, the largest an M1.8/1b at 20/1428 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (657 km/s). Region 160 has increased in magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma configuration due to mixing in the leading spots. Region 162 (N26E46) continues to grow in area coverage and spot count. This region has produced two M-class events, the largest an M1.8/Sf at 20/0045 UTC. Region 162 maintains its beta-gamma magnetic configuration and polarity mixing has been observed in the leading edge of the trailing spots. Region 158 (S07W32) produced only minor flares and has simplified to a beta magnetic configuration. Two new regions were numbered today: Region 164 (N11E54) and Region 165 (N20E71).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 160 and Region 162 have M-class potential.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The high speed stream continues but effects are minimal due to a consistently northward Bz.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. There is a chance of isolated active to minor storm conditions on day two and day three due to effects from the M-class activity mentioned above.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 21 Oct till 23 Oct
M-klass50%45%40%
X-klass05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       20 Oct 180
  Prognoserat   21 Oct-23 Oct  180/175/175
  90 Day Mean        20 Oct 181
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 19 Oct  009/011
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 20 Oct  010/010
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct  010/010-010/015-012/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 21 Oct till 23 Oct
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt20%25%25%
Små stormförhållanden05%05%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt20%25%30%
Små stormförhållanden05%10%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%05%

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