Viewing archive of fredag, 18 oktober 2002

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Oct 18 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 291 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 18 Oct 2002

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 162 (N25E71) produced the majority of the optically observed flare activity today, the largest was a C4/Sf event at 18/1927 UTC. The large cluster of spots seen in white-light appears to be all one region (based on current available magnetic data) although the regions proximity to the limb hinders any certainty at this time. Region 149 (N14W46) produced only minor B and C-class flares today. Magnetic analysis shows the return of the weak gamma magnetic structure that once again has become apparent. No other significant changes were seen in the region since yesterday. Region 158 (S08W02) produced a single optically correlated flare, a C1/Sf at 18/0703 UTC. This region retains a beta-gamma magnetic structure and underwent little change during the period. Newly numbered region 163 (S21W10) was assigned today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 162 may have the potential of producing isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated period of active conditions between 18/1500-1800 UTC due in part to the elevated solar wind speeds (550-650 km/s). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels with a chance of isolated active conditions on days one and two due to the elevated solar wind speeds and a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 19 Oct till 21 Oct
M-klass40%40%40%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       18 Oct 173
  Prognoserat   19 Oct-21 Oct  175/175/180
  90 Day Mean        18 Oct 182
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 17 Oct  008/011
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 18 Oct  010/012
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  008/012-010/012-006/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 19 Oct till 21 Oct
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt20%20%15%
Små stormförhållanden05%05%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt25%25%20%
Små stormförhållanden05%05%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%

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