Viewing archive of torsdag, 17 oktober 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Oct 17 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 290 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 17 Oct 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 158 (S08E11)
produced the largest flare of the period which was a C3.5/Sf that
occurred at 17/1207 UTC. Penumbral growth was seen in the trailing
cluster of spots in this northeast-southwest orientated spot
complex. A weak gamma magnetic structure also became evident today.
Several lesser C-class flares were also attributed to this region.
Region 149 (N14W33) showed slight decay and produced a single
optically correlated long duration event, flare maximum reached
C3.0/Sf at 17/1805 UTC. Weak magnetic gamma structure seen
yesterday is no longer apparent. New region 162 (N25E76) was
assigned today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 149 and 158 are capable of producing low level
M-class flare activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. An
isolated active period occurred between 17/0000-0300 UTC at high
latitudes.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled. Active
conditions are possible on day one due to elevated solar wind speed.
Day three may see active conditions in response to a relatively
small, yet favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 18 Oct till 20 Oct
| M-klass | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 17 Oct 179 Prognoserat 18 Oct-20 Oct 185/185/180 90 Day Mean 17 Oct 182
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 16 Oct 009/014 Förväntat Afr/Ap 17 Oct 010/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 010/015-008/012-010/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 18 Oct till 20 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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