Viewing archive of måndag, 9 september 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Sep 09 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 252 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 09 Sep 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 105 (S08E54)
produced the largest event, an M2/2n flare at 09/1752 UTC. This
event was accompanied by faint sympathetic flares from Regions 103
(N15W07) and 96 (S15W57), both of which also produced lesser C-class
flares earlier in the day. Region 105 is the largest spot group on
the visible disk, exhibiting an apparent beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration and an areal coverage in excess of 1200 millionths.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly moderate for the next three days. Region 105 is a
likely source of further M-class flare activity, and could also
produce an isolated major flare. Region 103 is undergoing some
growth in size and complexity and could also be a source of M-class
activity during the period.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated
active periods observed at higher latitudes.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field conditions
are expected to be quiet to active during the next three days. An
evolving period of persistent southward Bz may produce isolated
active periods over the next several hours, while coronal hole
effects are expected to produce active conditions during the second
and third days of the forecast period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 10 Sep till 12 Sep
| M-klass | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 09 Sep 206 Prognoserat 10 Sep-12 Sep 210/220/225 90 Day Mean 09 Sep 171
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 08 Sep 019/026 Förväntat Afr/Ap 09 Sep 006/008 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep 008/008-012/015-012/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 10 Sep till 12 Sep
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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