Viewing archive of torsdag, 22 augusti 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Aug 22 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 234 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 22 Aug 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 21-2100Z till 22-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 69 (S07W71)
produced an M5/2b event at 22/0157 UTC. This event had an
associated 260 sfu Tenflare and a Type II and Type IV radio sweep.
This region has decreased slightly in size and sunspot count and
continues to maintain the beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
New Region 87 (S07E74), numbered today, produced an M1/1n event at
22/1802 UTC. Another region was numbered today as Region 86
(S21E29).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 69 remains capable of producing a major
event.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 21-2100Z till 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active conditions. A greater
than 10 MeV proton event began at 22/0440 UTC and is still in
progress. The tentative maximum for this event has been 36 pfu at
22/0940 UTC. Also, a greater than 100 MeV event began at 22/0340
UTC, reaching a maximum of 1 pfu at 22/0510 UTC and ended at 22/0615
UTC. This activity is associated with the M5 event observed today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled conditions.
Unsettled to active conditions are possible for 24 August in
response to the M5 event observed today. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event is expected to continue into 23 August.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 23 Aug till 25 Aug
| M-klass | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| X-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 99% | 50% | 40% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 22 Aug 220 Prognoserat 23 Aug-25 Aug 215/215/210 90 Day Mean 22 Aug 169
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 21 Aug 019/041 Förväntat Afr/Ap 22 Aug 012/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 015/015-020/020-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 23 Aug till 25 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Senaste nytt
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