Viewing archive of lördag, 3 augusti 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Aug 03 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 215 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 03 Aug 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 39 (S16W83) produced an
impulsive X1 flare and CME off the SW limb at 23/1907Z. Limb
proximity limits our analysis of this region, but it was in a decay
phase over the past few days. Complex Region 44 (S24W88) produced
considerable surging early in the period and is the likely source of
a C6 flare in progress at issue time. Some development in size and
complexity was observed in Region 57 (S08W25) which now exhibits a
beta-gamma configuration. Region 50 (S08W73) continues to maintain
moderate size and complexity, but has been quiet. New Regions 60
(S28W26), and 61 (N08E77) were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class flares are still possible from Regions 39 and 44
as they rotate around the west limb. M-class flares are also
possible from Region 50 and developing Region 57. An isolated major
flare is possible.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Active to
minor storm conditions were observed through the first half of the
period but tapered off to quiet to unsettled after 23/0900Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with
isolated high latitude active periods. Preliminary analysis of the
X1 flare and CME off the SW limb late today suggests the ejecta is
not earthbound.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 04 Aug till 06 Aug
| M-klass | 75% | 65% | 55% |
| X-klass | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 03 Aug 168 Prognoserat 04 Aug-06 Aug 160/160/160 90 Day Mean 03 Aug 167
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 02 Aug 028/037 Förväntat Afr/Ap 03 Aug 018/020 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 012/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 04 Aug till 06 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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