Viewing archive of lördag, 20 juli 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Jul 20 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 201 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 20 Jul 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. An unobserved M1 event was
in progress at the very end -- 2100 UTC -- of the period, with an
associated Type II sweep. Earlier a C9/1n at 1242UTC from Region 30
(N18W63) occurred. Region 30 has showed some decay in white light
during the period. Region 36 (S07E11) developed in all observables,
growing to 980 millionths in white light and exhibiting a weak delta
in the leader spot.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 30 and 36 are good candidates for an isolated
M-class event.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. High speed
(700 - 900 km/s) solar wind fueled the activity, but no transients
were seen in the plasma data. The IMF had a very small northward
component most of the day, diminishing the impact of the high radial
speed on the magnetosphere. The small proton event at greater than
10 MeV was ended at 19/1535 UTC. The peak flux was 13 pfu at 19/1515
UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled levels throughout the interval.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 21 Jul till 23 Jul
| M-klass | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 20 Jul 185 Prognoserat 21 Jul-23 Jul 185/185/180 90 Day Mean 20 Jul 160
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 19 Jul 009/012 Förväntat Afr/Ap 20 Jul 015/017 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 010/015-010/012-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 21 Jul till 23 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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