Viewing archive of fredag, 19 juli 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Jul 19 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 200 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 19 Jul 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. The day's largest event was an
unobserved C8 at 18/2317 UTC. Region 30 (N16W54) continued to
produce numerous flares, but all have been small. The region retains
a degree of magnetic complexity as it encompasses a large field of
bright plage. Region 36 (S06E26) is still impressive in white light
and h-alpha, but was unproductive.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 30 and 36 have the potential for M-class activity.
In addition, LASCO has seen additional backside CMEs that herald the
arrival of an active region on the SE limb. Old Region 17 (S18)
developed as it approached W limb last rotation, and produced one
X-class and 4 M-class events. It's arrival at E limb is imminent.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The solar wind has been
turbulent during the past 24 hours, with at least two shocks passing
ACE during the middle part of the period. A greater than 10 MeV
proton event began following the first shock at 19/1050 UTC. It
attained a tentative maximum of 13 pfu at 1515 UTC. Proton fluxes
are currently hovering just below 10 pfu.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 48 hours. A CME from
activity on 18 July is expected on 20 July, but is not expected to
have a strong impact on the geomagnetic field. Proton fluxes may
become somewhat enhanced with the shock passage.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 20 Jul till 22 Jul
| M-klass | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| X-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 50% | 50% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 19 Jul 182 Prognoserat 20 Jul-22 Jul 180/180/185 90 Day Mean 19 Jul 161
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 18 Jul 004/008 Förväntat Afr/Ap 19 Jul 008/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 015/015-015/020-010/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 20 Jul till 22 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Senaste nytt
måndag, 22 april 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
lördag, 23 mars 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
onsdag, 20 mars 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Senaste inläggen
AR3654 24Unspecified geomagnetic activity 954Unproven theories 342Changelog/Featurelog 154What are these long and thin eruptions? 9
Fler foruminläggStöd SpaceWeatherLive.com!
För att vara tillgängliga vid stora norrskensutbrott måsta vi ha kraftiga servrar som kan hantera alla besökare. Donera och stöd vårt projekt, så att vi kan finnas online även under stora stormar!
Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/04/27 | M3.0 |
| Senaste geomagnetiska stormen | 2024/04/26 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
| Månadsvis faktiskt antal solfläckar | |
|---|---|
| mars 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |
| Last 30 days | 137.7 +30.3 |