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Viewing archive of onsdag, 12 juni 2002

Solaktivitetsrapport

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Jun 12 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 163 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 Jun 2002

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Optically verified using EIT imagery, Region 9987 (S15W56) produced a C1 x-ray flare at 12/0903 UTC. This region underwent slight decay today. Less penumbral coverage seen in trailing cluster of spots, although region continues to exhibit beta-gamma magnetic characteristics. Region 9991 (S22E04) showed slight growth in penumbral coverage during the period. Other than occasional point brightening and minor dark surging, this region was stable through the period. A Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 450 km/s occurred at 12/0145 UTC. Source region of the sweep is believed to have originated from beyond the northeast limb of the visible disk. Regions 9996 (S27E46), 9997 (N08E73), and 9998 (N15E74) were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 9987 remains capable of producing an isolated low level M-class flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Day three of the forecast period may experience isolated active conditions in response to a southern hemispheric high speed stream coronal hole becoming favorably positioned.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 Jun till 15 Jun
M-klass25%25%25%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       12 Jun 142
  Prognoserat   13 Jun-15 Jun  145/145/155
  90 Day Mean        12 Jun 180
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 11 Jun  007/012
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 12 Jun  005/010
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  005/008-006/008-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 Jun till 15 Jun
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt10%10%20%
Små stormförhållanden01%01%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt15%15%25%
Små stormförhållanden05%05%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
PLAIN This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you may have noticed, we are steadily approaching region number 10000. The plan for Space Weather operations is to go through the sequence of Region numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's product text discussions of the active regions will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format. The necessity of using four digits is for operational purposes only. For historical purposes all regions beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a series of regions numbers 10000 and higher.

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