Viewing archive of lördag, 25 maj 2002

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 May 25 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 145 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 25 May 2002

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to low levels. Occasional subflares occurred, some of which were associated with C-class X-ray events. Region 9960 (N14W20) produced a single C-class subflare. It underwent slight decay, but retained a delta magnetic configuration within its trailer spots. Region 9961 (S21W04) produced a long-duration C-class subflare at 25/1721 UTC associated with minor radio emission and a narrow-width CME from the south pole. The CME did not appear to be Earth-directed. It showed gradual decay with a persistent, but weakened delta within its intermediate spots. Region 9957 (N10W45) displayed little change during the period. Magnetic delta configurations were present in the northern and southern portions of this region, though they appeared to have dissipated and reformed during the past day or two. New Region 9969 (N09E67) produced occasional subflares. This region may have a moderate degree of complexity, though it is too close to the east limb for a detailed analysis.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 9957, 9961, and 9963 appear capable of isolated M-class flare production. There is a slight chance for an isolated major flare during the period.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the period. However, brief active intervals are possible on 26 May due to recurrent coronal hole effects. There is a slight chance for a proton event during the period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 26 May till 28 May
M-klass50%50%50%
X-klass10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       25 May 183
  Prognoserat   26 May-28 May  180/180/180
  90 Day Mean        25 May 183
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 24 May  003/007
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 25 May  005/007
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  012/010-008/008-007/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 26 May till 28 May
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt35%25%20%
Små stormförhållanden15%10%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt40%30%25%
Små stormförhållanden20%15%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%01%01%

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