Viewing archive of måndag, 29 april 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Apr 29 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 119 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 29 Apr 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several low, optically
uncorrelated C-class flares were observed, the largest being a C4 at
29/0940Z. The likely sources for most of the discrete X-ray bursts
were Regions 9915 (N12W53) and 9919 (N15W13). No appreciable changes
were noted in these or the remaining active regions on the visible
disk. The overall enhanced X-ray baseline is likely due to the
return of several active regions on or near the east limb.
Considerable CME activity was noted off the east limb over the past
24 hours. New Regions 9927 (S28E68), and 9928 (N18E75) were numbered
today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Continued C-class flares are likely from Regions 9915 and 9919. The
potential for activity at or near the east limb will increase over
the coming days.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods at high latitudes. The disturbed conditions are due to a
high speed coronal hole stream that began on the 27th.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expect
to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods at high latitudes.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 30 Apr till 02 May
| M-klass | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| X-klass | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 29 Apr 153 Prognoserat 30 Apr-02 May 155/160/165 90 Day Mean 29 Apr 193
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 28 Apr 014/019 Förväntat Afr/Ap 29 Apr 008/012 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 008/010-005/008-008/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 30 Apr till 02 May
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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