Viewing archive of tisdag, 26 mars 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Mar 26 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 085 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 26 Mar 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 25-2100Z till 26-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C3/Sf from 9878 (N08E01). This region continues to slowly
develop in size and complexity. Minor C-class flares were also
observed in Region 9881 (S03W62). A strong CME observed off the west
limb at around 26/1400Z, appears to have originated from behind the
SW limb. Remaining regions on the visible disk were stable or in
decay.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9878 has potential to produce isolated M-class
flares. Occasional C-class flares are expected from Region 9881.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 25-2100Z till 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet early in the period, but
became unsettled following the onset of a coronal hole high speed
stream at around 26/0100Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with
isolated active periods at high latitudes. This weak, coronal hole
related disturbance should begin to subside by day two.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 27 Mar till 29 Mar
| M-klass | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 26 Mar 166 Prognoserat 27 Mar-29 Mar 165/165/160 90 Day Mean 26 Mar 208
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 25 Mar 007/005 Förväntat Afr/Ap 26 Mar 010/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar 010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 27 Mar till 29 Mar
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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