Viewing archive of söndag, 17 mars 2002

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Mar 17 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 076 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 17 Mar 2002

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours. Region 9871 (S18E20) produced today's biggest event, an impulsive M4/Sf at 1931 UTC. The region appears to be growing slowly. An additional M-class event occurred: an M1 at 1019 UTC for which there was no optical report. Region 9866 (S09W33) is decaying gradually, but is still the largest region on the disk. Retrospective analysis of the CME that occurred around 15/2310 UTC shows a full halo event with an estimated plane-of-sky speed somewhere in the 750-850 km/s range. New Region 9873 (S17W09) emerged near the middle of the solar disk during the past 24 hours.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be moderate during the next three days, with Regions 9866 and 9871 being the most likely sources.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater than 10 MeV protons began to rise at the very end of the UT day yesterday and crossed event threshold at 17/0820 UTC. The fluxes reached a maximum of 13 PFU at 17/0850 UTC. The fluxes dropped below threshold at 17/1230 UTC, but have been fluctuating and have been on the increase since around 1500 UTC. It seems probable that the current slow climb is related to the approach of an interplanetary shock.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active to minor storm levels tomorrow in response to the halo CME event of 15/2310 UTC. A decrease to active is expected on the second day and a further decline to unsettled is expected by the third day. The current trend of the 10 MeV protons and the likely arrival of a shock in the next 12 hours all suggest that the proton fluxes should once again cross threshold.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 18 Mar till 20 Mar
M-klass50%50%50%
X-klass05%05%05%
Proton50%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       17 Mar 184
  Prognoserat   18 Mar-20 Mar  190/195/190
  90 Day Mean        17 Mar 215
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 16 Mar  005/005
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 17 Mar  005/005
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  030/030-020/020-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 18 Mar till 20 Mar
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt20%25%25%
Små stormförhållanden25%20%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden20%15%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt20%25%30%
Små stormförhållanden25%20%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden25%20%10%

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