Viewing archive of lördag, 2 mars 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Mar 02 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 061 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 02 Mar 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9845 (N18W18) produced
the largest flare of the period, a C4/Sf at 02/2016 UTC. Earlier,
an impressive prominence erupted off the southeast limb, near
S43E90, beginning at about 02/1345 UTC. This event was visible in
SOHO/EIT and H-alpha imagery, and a subsequent CME was seen in LASCO
imagery, though not appearing earth-directed. A slight x-ray
enhancement accompanied this event, and persisted through the
remainder of the period. New Region 9853 (S24E69) was numbered
today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low. A chance for isolated M-class activity exists
for Region 9845.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with some isolated unsettled
periods during 02/1500-2100 UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through day one. Onset of high
speed stream effects from a large, positive-polarity coronal hole
are expected to develop during day two, and persist for the
remainder of the forecast period, with active conditions likely and
isolated minor storm periods at higher latitudes possible.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 03 Mar till 05 Mar
| M-klass | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 02 Mar 191 Prognoserat 03 Mar-05 Mar 185/185/180 90 Day Mean 02 Mar 222
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 01 Mar 009/011 Förväntat Afr/Ap 02 Mar 004/005 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 007/008-010/010-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 03 Mar till 05 Mar
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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