Viewing archive of tisdag, 19 februari 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Feb 19 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 050 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 19 Feb 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
9830 (S20E07) produced a long-duration M1/Sf flare at 18/2115 UTC as
well as isolated C-class subflares, none of which were associated
with significant radio emission. Region 9830 continued to gradually
develop with increased area and magnetic complexity. Most of the
region's complexity lies within its large leader spots where
multiple, strong magnetic delta configurations have formed over the
past few days. Region 9825 (N16W66) produced an impulsive C-class
flare as it continued to gradually decay. The remaining regions were
unremarkable. New Region 9833 (N11W16) was numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to remain
at moderate levels. Isolated low-level M-class flares are likely.
Region 9830 could produce an isolated major flare during the period.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels.
Unsettled to active conditions occurred during 18/2100 - 2400 UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Region 9830 provides a
slight chance for a proton flare during the period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 20 Feb till 22 Feb
| M-klass | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 19 Feb 189 Prognoserat 20 Feb-22 Feb 195/200/205 90 Day Mean 19 Feb 222
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 18 Feb 006/009 Förväntat Afr/Ap 19 Feb 007/006 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 007/008-007/008-007/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 20 Feb till 22 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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