Viewing archive of lördag, 2 februari 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Feb 02 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 033 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 02 Feb 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9800 (N10W44)
produced the largest flare of the period, a C5/Sf at 01/2120 UTC.
This region continues to show slow decay while retaining it's
beta-gamma magnetic structure. Region 9802 (S14W18) produced two
minor C-class flares during the period and has also shown some
slight decay in penumbral coverage. However, the delta magnetic
configuration within the dominate intermediate spot remains intact.
Multiple Type III radio sweeps and a pair of radio bursts comprised
the rest of the recorded activity for the period. New Regions 9811
(S27E83) and 9812 (N12W16) were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9802 has the potential to produce
M-class flare activity, possibly an isolated major flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to minor storm levels.
An isolated period of minor storm conditions occurred at 02/0600 -
0900 UTC. This was preceded with a sudden impulse at the Boulder
magnetometer of 45 nT at 02/0558 UTC. This transient is presumed to
be related to M3 x-ray flare that occurred in old Region 9787 at
31/1444 UTC. The optical correlation for this flare was attained
using SOHO/EIT imagery, as this region had rotated beyond the west
limb.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for
isolated active conditions through day one of the forecast period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 03 Feb till 05 Feb
| M-klass | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| X-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 02 Feb 241 Prognoserat 03 Feb-05 Feb 240/240/240 90 Day Mean 02 Feb 225
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 01 Feb 011/011 Förväntat Afr/Ap 02 Feb 016/018 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 010/015-005/010-005/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 03 Feb till 05 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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