Viewing archive of måndag, 14 januari 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Jan 14 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 014 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 14 Jan 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. The largest event of
the period was a long duration M4.4 flare, associated with an
evident CME from a source behind the southwest limb, at 14/0627 UTC.
M-class activity from regions on the visible disk included an M1/2n
from Region 9782 (N07E33) at 14/0156 UTC, and an M1/Sf from Region
9775 (S06W57) at 14/0136 UTC. The largest active region on the
visible disk, Region 9773 (N16W70), appears to be degrading somewhat
as it approaches the west limb, but maintains its moderate size and
magnetic complexity. Region 9782 and nearby Region 9785 (N11E41)
exhibited some increases in areal coverage and magnetic complexity
during the period.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days. Isolated major flare activity
is possible from the regions discussed in Section 1A above.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. High speed stream
effects from a favorably positioned coronal hole appeared to wane
with falling solar wind velocities over the course of the period.
Particle fluxes for >10MeV protons and >2MeV electrons were
enhanced, but remained below event thresholds.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled. Enhancements of
particle fluxes for >10MeV protons or >2MeV electrons could result
in above-threshold events during the period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 15 Jan till 17 Jan
| M-klass | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| X-klass | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Proton | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 14 Jan 229 Prognoserat 15 Jan-17 Jan 235/240/240 90 Day Mean 14 Jan 224
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 13 Jan 010/011 Förväntat Afr/Ap 14 Jan 010/008 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 007/008-007/005-010/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 15 Jan till 17 Jan
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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