Viewing archive of fredag, 11 januari 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Jan 11 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 011 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 11 Jan 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9767
(S18W87) produced an M1/Sf flare at 11/0807 UTC. This region has
shown signs of slight decay as it approached the west limb. Region
9773 (N15W32) produced four minor C-class flare and remains a
magnetically complex beta-gamma-delta region. There has been growth
in the area coverage of this region but reduced spot count. Two new
regions were numbered today: Region 9781 (S06E64) and Region 9782
(N08E73). Region 9782 is believed to be the return of old Region
9742 which was quite active while on the disc.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with Regions 9773 (N14W32) and 9778 (S16E33) the most
promising flare sites.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels, due to a
high speed solar wind stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton event
that began at 10/2045 utc, reached a tentative maximum of 91 pfu at
11/0530 UTC. The flux is slowly declining.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at unsettled to active levels for the next 48
hours. Strictly unsettled conditions should end the period. The
satellite proton event is expected to continue for at least another
24 hours.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 12 Jan till 14 Jan
| M-klass | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| X-klass | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 75% | 50% | 25% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 11 Jan 229 Prognoserat 12 Jan-14 Jan 230/235/240 90 Day Mean 11 Jan 223
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 10 Jan 016/017 Förväntat Afr/Ap 11 Jan 020/022 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 015/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 12 Jan till 14 Jan
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 40% | 50% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
Senaste nytt
måndag, 22 april 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
lördag, 23 mars 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
onsdag, 20 mars 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Senaste inläggen
Unspecified geomagnetic activity 966AR3663 14ionosphere D detection 14Unproven theories 378CME 2024-MAY-01 south of AR3654 C5.8 4
Fler foruminläggStöd SpaceWeatherLive.com!
För att vara tillgängliga vid stora norrskensutbrott måsta vi ha kraftiga servrar som kan hantera alla besökare. Donera och stöd vårt projekt, så att vi kan finnas online även under stora stormar!
Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/05/02 | M1.0 |
| Senaste geomagnetiska stormen | 2024/04/26 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
| Månadsvis faktiskt antal solfläckar | |
|---|---|
| april 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| Last 30 days | 146.6 +47.6 |