Viewing archive of torsdag, 15 november 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Nov 15 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 319 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 15 Nov 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9690 (S17W60)
produced an M1/1f at 14/2211Z with minor centimetric bursts. Other
minor C-class events were observed in this region which continues to
gradually decay. Minor C-class flares were also observed in
developing Regions 9703 (N23W01), and 9704 (S18E56). Region 9697
(N13E20) is in a slow growth phase and now exceeds 300 millionths of
white light area coverage. Some plage fluctuations were observed,
but no significant magnetic complexity exist at this time.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to continue
at moderate levels. Region 9690 is the best source for an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Quiet conditions were
predominant until a small sudden impulse (SI) of 6 nT was observed
on the Boulder magnetometer at 15/1509Z. Unsettled to active
conditions prevailed since the SI.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods at mostly higher latitudes.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 16 Nov till 18 Nov
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| X-klass | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 15 Nov 207 Prognoserat 16 Nov-18 Nov 205/205/195 90 Day Mean 15 Nov 216
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 14 Nov 003/003 Förväntat Afr/Ap 15 Nov 010/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 010/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 16 Nov till 18 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 20% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 50% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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