Viewing archive of lördag, 3 november 2001

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Nov 03 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 307 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 03 Nov 2001

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours due to numerous C-class flares. Regions 9687 (S19E49) and 9682 (N12W50) combined to produce a C5 event at 0741 UTC. An additional C5/Sf was produced by 9682 at 0935 UTC. Region 9682 was quieter today than yesterday and appears to have decreased slightly in area. Region 9687 also was quieter today. Preliminary analysis of 9687 indicates at least a beta-gamma magnetic class, and there may possibly be a weak delta sunspot in the group. Region 9684 (N05W15) showed some spot rotation and some development of the leader spot. A partial halo CME, reported by LASCO, entered the C2 field of view at 01/2230 UTC and was apparently associated with yesterday's M1 event out of Region 9682.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate during the next three days. There is a slight chance for a major flare or a proton producing flare. Regions 9682, 9684, and 9687 continue to be the major groups to watch for energetic flare activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled during the next 24-36 hours. An increase to unsettled to slightly active levels is forecast for the second and third days in response to the partial halo CME event that occurred late on 1 November.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 04 Nov till 06 Nov
M-klass70%70%70%
X-klass20%20%20%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       03 Nov 216
  Prognoserat   04 Nov-06 Nov  215/210/215
  90 Day Mean        03 Nov 206
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 02 Nov  006/006
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 03 Nov  005/005
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  005/008-015/015-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 04 Nov till 06 Nov
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt15%35%35%
Små stormförhållanden10%20%20%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%10%10%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt15%40%40%
Små stormförhållanden10%25%25%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%10%10%

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