Viewing archive of torsdag, 23 augusti 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Aug 23 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 235 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 23 Aug 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 9591
(S17E53) produced frequent, impulsive mid-level C-class flares with
minor radio emission. This region showed a magnetic delta structure
in its trailing sunspots and a weak delta in its interior spots.
Currently, Region 9591 spans about 30 degrees in longitude. However,
it appeared likely this region was comprised of two abutted sunspot
groups, which may be split into separate groups once this complex
rotates further into view. Minor polarity mixing was evident in
Regions 9582 (N28W33) and 9585 (N14W16), but both regions were
inactive as they showed signs of decay. The remaining active regions
were unremarkable. New Region 9593 (N00E01) was numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a good chance for an isolated M-class flare from
Region 9591. There is also a slight chance for a major flare from
this region.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity decreased to quiet to unsettled levels as
coronal hole effects subsided.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the first half of
the period increasing to unsettled to active levels during the rest
of the period. There will be a slight chance for a proton event
during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit may reach high levels during the first half of
the forecast period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 24 Aug till 26 Aug
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 23 Aug 170 Prognoserat 24 Aug-26 Aug 175/180/180 90 Day Mean 23 Aug 152
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 22 Aug 014/017 Förväntat Afr/Ap 23 Aug 009/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 010/010-012/012-015/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 24 Aug till 26 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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