Viewing archive of onsdag, 15 augusti 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Aug 15 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 227 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 15 Aug 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z Solar activity has been low. The largest event of the
period was an optically uncorrelated C3 flare at 15/0243 UTC.
Region 9574 (S04W66) produced a C1/Sf at 15/1242 UTC. This region
remains the largest on the visible disk, but has decayed somewhat in
spot count, areal coverage, and magnetic complexity since yesterday.
Most of the other numbered regions on the disk have also similarly
decayed or remained little changed, and quiet. Exceptions are
formerly spotless Region 9577 (N13W61), which had new spots emerge
today, and two newly numbered regions: 9581 (S28W09) and 9582
(N32E73).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low for the next three days. A small chance for
isolated moderate flare activity still exists for Region 9574 and
the newly emerged regions noted in Section 1A above.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been mainly quiet, with isolated unsettled
periods. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached moderate enhancement levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first day of the forecast
period. Thereafter, an onset of magnetic storming is anticipated
from the CME activity of 14 August, with active to minor storm
conditions and isolated major storm periods possible at higher
latitudes. Conditions are expected to return to predominantly
unsettled levels by day three. Moderate to high flux levels for
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit are also
possible throughout the period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 16 Aug till 18 Aug
| M-klass | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| X-klass | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 15 Aug 147 Prognoserat 16 Aug-18 Aug 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 15 Aug 151
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 14 Aug 010/012 Förväntat Afr/Ap 15 Aug 007/009 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 015/015-025/025-017/017
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 16 Aug till 18 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 35% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Senaste nytt
onsdag, 15 maj 2024
More X-flares!
tisdag, 14 maj 2024
X8.7 solar flare
måndag, 13 maj 2024
M6.6 solar flare with earth-directed CME
Senaste inläggen
Records from current activity discussion 9Incoming Active Regions 337Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1024May 2024 Geomagnetic Storms from AR 13664 (2) 307Unproven theories 449
Fler foruminläggStöd SpaceWeatherLive.com!
För att vara tillgängliga vid stora norrskensutbrott måsta vi ha kraftiga servrar som kan hantera alla besökare. Donera och stöd vårt projekt, så att vi kan finnas online även under stora stormar!
Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/05/15 | X2.9 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/05/15 | M3.2 |
| Senaste geomagnetiska stormen | 2024/05/13 | Kp6 (G2) |
| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
| Månadsvis faktiskt antal solfläckar | |
|---|---|
| april 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| maj 2024 | 153.1 +16.6 |
| Last 30 days | 176.7 +74.1 |