Viewing archive of torsdag, 21 juni 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Jun 21 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 172 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 21 Jun 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9503
(N16W33) produced isolated C-class subflares. Flux emergence
occurred within the interior spots of this region and a magnetic
delta configuration may have developed in the trailer portion of the
group as well. Region 9504 (N08W28) produced isolated C-class
subflares during the period. Regions 9503 and 9504 appeared to be
linked magnetically. Both regions share a common neutral line and
have exhibited some sympathetic flare activity. Region 9506 (N19W04)
maintained a mild mixing of polarities and was stable through the
period. New Regions 9512 (S23E31) and 9513 (N21E76) were numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9503 could produce an M-class flare
during the period. There is also a slight chance for a major flare
from this region.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels through
the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux may reach high levels during 22 June. Normal to
moderate fluxes are expected during the rest of the period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 22 Jun till 24 Jun
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 21 Jun 200 Prognoserat 22 Jun-24 Jun 205/205/200 90 Day Mean 21 Jun 174
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 20 Jun 010/015 Förväntat Afr/Ap 21 Jun 010/013 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 010/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 22 Jun till 24 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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