Viewing archive of söndag, 29 april 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Apr 29 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 119 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 29 Apr 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z Solar activity remained low. Region 9433 (N18W63)
produced isolated C-class subflares as it continued to show gradual
decay in its lead and intermediate spots. However, no significant
changes occurred within its trailer spots, where a magnetic delta
configuration persisted. Region 9441 (N07E11) continued a gradual
growth phase, but remained simply structured. Region 9444 (S11E52)
showed minor spot and penumbral development. Region 9445 (N24E61)
also exhibited minor spot and penumbral development and produced
isolated C-class subflares late in the period. New Region 9446
(S05W22) was numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 9433 is expected to produce isolated
low-level M-class flares during the period. It may also produce an
isolated major flare before crossing the west limb on 02 May.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. The
geomagnetic field disturbance that began yesterday subsided to quiet
to unsettled levels after 29/0600 UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the period.
Region 9433 could produce a proton flare before crossing the west
limb on 02 May.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 30 Apr till 02 May
| M-klass | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| X-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 29 Apr 192 Prognoserat 30 Apr-02 May 190/185/180 90 Day Mean 29 Apr 168
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 28 Apr 034/028 Förväntat Afr/Ap 29 Apr 015/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 010/010-010/010-010/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 30 Apr till 02 May
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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