Viewing archive of fredag, 16 mars 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Mar 16 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 075 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 16 Mar 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9373 (S07W20) generated
several small C-class flares. The largest of these was a C5/SN at
16/1041 UTC. Region 9384 (N11W23) also produced a number of small
C-class subflares. Both Regions exhibited flare-bright plage
fluctuations throughout the day. A full halo CME was reported by the
SOHO LASCO team as being first observed in the LASCO C2 instrument
at 16/0350 UTC. Timing of the event suggests that it is most likely
associated with an eruptive filament between Regions 9373 and 9384.
Small C-class flares also occurred in these Regions during this time
period.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Additional C-class flares are possible in Regions 9373 and 9384.
Both Regions are also capable of a low-level M-class flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Increased activity levels are
possible at the end of the three-day forecast period in response to
the CME discussed in Part IA.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 17 Mar till 19 Mar
| M-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 16 Mar 140 Prognoserat 17 Mar-19 Mar 135/130/130 90 Day Mean 16 Mar 161
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 15 Mar 002/003 Förväntat Afr/Ap 16 Mar 003/004 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 005/005-015/015-015/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 17 Mar till 19 Mar
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 02% |
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