Viewing archive of måndag, 12 mars 2001

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Mar 12 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 071 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 Mar 2001

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Regions 9373 (S08E34) and 9376 (S15E57) emerged as the most active regions on the visible disk. Region 9373 continues to develop in size and complexity and produced occasional subfaint C-class flares. Region 9376 produced a C4/Sf at 12/1737Z with an associated CME. This region's proximity to the SE limb is still hindering a thorough analysis, but new spots became apparent today in and near this region; moderate complexity is obvious with at least three regions relatively close to each other. An eruption off the SW limb was observed late in the period. It was likely associated with an eruption of a large bushy filament that rotated around the west limb a few days ago. New Regions 9378 (N24W32), 9379 (N31E39), and 9380 (S09E66) were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Best chance for a M-flare is from Regions 9373 and 9376.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Quiet conditions existed prior to a shock observed at SOHO/MTOF at approximately 12/0500Z. Mostly unsettled to active conditions were observed at all latitudes since the shock. This disturbance is presumed to be associated with the 8 Mar, M5/1b flare and CME.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods through day 1.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 Mar till 15 Mar
M-klass50%50%50%
X-klass05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       12 Mar 158
  Prognoserat   13 Mar-15 Mar  155/150/150
  90 Day Mean        12 Mar 163
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 11 Mar  002/004
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 12 Mar  010/010
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar  010/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 Mar till 15 Mar
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%25%20%
Små stormförhållanden10%05%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt40%30%25%
Små stormförhållanden20%10%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%05%01%

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