Viewing archive of tisdag, 6 mars 2001

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Mar 06 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 065 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 06 Mar 2001

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. The largest event of the day was an optically uncorrelated C6 flare at 06/1013 UTC. SOHO/LASCO data suggest an association with the most energetic phase of a CME observed off the west limb, though not appearing earth-directed. Several lesser C-class events occurred throughout the day, with three observed from Region 9368 (N25W08), which underwent some growth in spot count and areal coverage, but without significant change in magnetic complexity. Region 9371 (N20W64) exhibited similar growth, but produced only two subfaint optical flares without notable x-ray enhancements. Region 9370 showed some increase in size and complexity, but has remained quiet so far, along with the other numbered regions on the disk.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low for the next three days, though a chance for isolated moderate (weak M-class) activity exists principally for Region 9368.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed remains somewhat elevated, but recent effects from a coronal hole high speed stream appear to have waned over the course of the day.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active conditions possible for the next 24 hours, until coronal hole effects have completely subsided. Mainly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected thereafter for the remainder of the forecast period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 07 Mar till 09 Mar
M-klass30%30%30%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       06 Mar 158
  Prognoserat   07 Mar-09 Mar  162/165/165
  90 Day Mean        06 Mar 162
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 05 Mar  019/018
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 06 Mar  008/008
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  008/008-007/005-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 07 Mar till 09 Mar
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt20%15%15%
Små stormförhållanden05%01%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt25%15%15%
Små stormförhållanden10%01%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%

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